A Pathway for Marianne Williamson to the Oval Office

Until we believe something is possible, we can’t activate the will or the strategies to make it a reality.

That’s why I want to explore a possible pathway for Marianne Williamson to win the Democratic nomination for President.

When I speak about the transformative power of Marianne’s campaign to heal and uplift the country (my blog on that subject here), people — even those who strongly support the platform and message she presents — often say that they are reluctant to throw their support behind her because, “she doesn’t have a chance.” Which shuts down the much more important question, “Is the vision of the future she offers us worth going for, even if it is a long shot?”

In today’s blog, I want to open your mind to how it could happen and thus eliminate the “doesn’t have a chance” argument. I want us to approach her candidacy realistically, as the long-but-not-impossible shot that it actually is.

There could well be dozens of pathways to her nomination, but by seeing the logic in one we open to the simple possibility of it happening — and can better make our decision about whether we want to put our time, money, and talents into supporting that possibility.

The best pathway I see is built upon the scenario of one very big domino falling: impeachment proceedings for Donald Trump beginning before the start of the early primaries.

It’s not a long-shot occurrence, as betting markets currently peg impeachment at a 22% chance of happening in 2019. If it happens — and it is sufficiently damaging to Trump’s prospects for remaining in office, receiving the nomination or winning the election — the psychology underlying the race on the Democratic side will change enormously.

That’s because the psychology of the Democratic electorate is currently constellated around one thing: stopping Trump from getting a second term. Primal, existential fear is driving our collective decision-making. When we’re experiencing that sort of fear, we revert to what is safe, secure and tested.

This fear is a large part of why Joe Biden is leading at this point in the race. It’s not because he’s the perfect candidate for the future of the Democratic party or even the post-Trump era — he is not. However, he represents a return to the relative normalcy of the Obama years and business-as-usual politics. Juxtaposed with the unhinged way Trump has wielded power, a return to the past now looks sane, balanced, and desirable.

On a symbolic level, Biden represents a memory of power over Republicans. In a situation of survival-level fears, we naturally want the strongest fighter we can find to go against our opponent, and in this case means an old white guy who’s been in the Oval Office and has the battle scars to prove his experience as that “strongest fighter.”

Similarly, it’s no accident that the other prominent white guys in the race have received a disproportionate share of the media attention, money, and polling support up to this point in the race. This also makes sense in terms of the evolutionary logic — we’re subconsciously trusting the white guys, who have wielded a disproportionate amount of the social and political force in our collective history, to stand up against the more dangerous white guy now in power.

Instead of judging the above logic, let’s assume for a moment that it remains in place. If Trump is in a strong position and able to avoid indictment and impeachment from any of the 20-plus investigations into him and his related organizations, we’ll likely end up with a fairly safe Democratic ticket such as Biden-Harris against Trump-Pence. Biden and Harris are credible, established, solid politicians; according to betting markets, something like that is the most probable pathway at this point.

However, what about the aforementioned 22% chance that Trump is in deeper legal and political jeopardy as a result of impeachment hearings or major new exposure of crimes? Given Nancy Pelosi’s reluctance to start the impeachment process, the situation would have to be much bleaker for Trump than the already-bad current situation for us to reach that moment.

Robert Mueller’s testimony to Congress alone could spark major changes in the landscape and his appearances should happen soon. The Democrats will hold dozens of public hearings this year. Video testimony convinces people far faster than the written word — and any of the 20 major investigations could yield additional crimes that are not just legally provable, but enough to motivate officials and public alike to demand action. It’s indicative that the first Republican, Justin Amash, has now broken from his party to come out in favor of impeachment.

If we take the impeachment scenario seriously as a possibility, what might be happening for Republican voters if Trump is perceived as doomed? A deep disillusionment with party leaders will set in, as those leaders are recognized for letting them down in a historic fashion by aiding and abetting a criminal President. And on the Democratic side, there might be even greater despair about just how corrupt our politics has become.

In other words, there would be a rotten stench around the political establishment.

At that point, electing someone who can defeat Trump would no longer need to be the first priority. The focus for the Democratic Party would then shift to a more interesting and potent question: “What future do we want to create? And how do we heal from this mess?”

Such a moment would lead to a greater likelihood to consider an out-of-the-box approach.

I posit that Marianne Williamson is ideally situated to be an out-of-the-box solution during such an unprecedented crisis of confidence in American democracy.

Marianne has a mastery of our history and the deeper principles of our democracy that is truly inspiring. She has a profound command of the sort of visionary, uplifting rhetoric that turned Martin Luther King into a national icon. And she is willing to speak the unvarnished truths we need to hear and to mobilize people into positive action.

She’s a change agent who can speak the language of morality, healing, and higher purpose, as evidenced by the 3 million books sold that have consistently put her onto the bestseller lists.

As an already-successful minister to the hearts of people, Marianne could well be someone America turns to as a voice of healing and conscience in our collective crisis. And then, as she provides this guidance and inspiration, she could become not just a plausible choice for President, but a preferable one.

For that to happen, though, Marianne would have to increase both her visibility and her stature with voters and pundits alike. She’d have to be recognized as a viable contender, competing in a league with other major campaigns on money, polls, and coverage. She’d have to have a bigger megaphone on the national stage.

This increase in her profile and in the seriousness by which her candidacy is regarded could lead the nation to begin to recognize her as the transformational political leader who can heal a broken Washington and help repair a nation.

So, how might she get there?

First, if you’ve ever watched Marianne speak, you know that she is one of the most powerful, compelling and riveting orators of our time. She speaks with precision, power, and commanding authority. She’s consistently brave and compassionate. She’s bold. And she is unafraid to speak the truth in a way that goes past our defenses, delivering liberating recognitions straight to our core.

These qualities have already led her to light up rooms from Iowa to New Hampshire, and to build a multi-decade, industry-leading career as an inspirational speaker. It’s been interesting to me that in several discussions with high-level Republicans, they have expressed how taken they are with her as a leader despite having radically different policy objectives than hers. She speaks a language of soul that is often missing on the left.

The reason Marianne’s mastery of speaking is important is that she has now qualified for the first two debates by reaching the 65,000-donor threshold and the polling threshhold — the 12th candidate to do so. As a result,the majority of Americans — many of whom have never even heard of her —will get a chance to see her on stage with 19 other candidates twice.

And when those voters do get to see her, I am certain that she will compare very favorably on stage, creating powerfully breakout moments that get attention.

Then, she will have to translate those breakout moments into media buzz and fundraising momentum over the following weeks to become the new phenomenon in the Democratic race, climbing from around 1% in three recent polls to in the range of 3–6%. At that point, she’d be in the upper half of a very competitive field.

The media love the horse race aspects of the campaign — and there is nothing more exciting than a long-shot candidate breaking out in a surprising fashion. If Marianne does break out after the first (or second) debate and sparks grassroots and fundraising momentum, she will get a much bigger media spotlight for a time, just as Mayor Pete, who was a relative unknown on the national stage, did before her.

By the autumn, Marianne will then need to keep building momentum, drawing upon deep bench of prominent allies to create bigger rallies and more electric events. By doing so, her campaign would become the 2020 version of the 2016 Bernie Sanders campaign — the cool, high-energy place to be. Given the sheer number of campaigns, grassroots electricity in the fall will be key.

If her grassroots events can capture the zeitgeist and give off the signs of a growing movement while she continues performing well in debates, Marianne will keep gaining ground, just as the second-tier campaigns begin to run out of gas. More airtime will offer her more opportunities to make powerful points to the American people — and we should not underestimate what will happen as more and more people get a chance to hear her message.

Now, let’s go back to our original assumption that impeachment proceedings have started by around the beginning of 2020, making it increasingly evident to Democrats and Republicans alike that Trump will be unelectable and that the Republican party will not have time to regroup around a new standard-bearer in advance of the election.

In this scenario, Marianne would then have the first months of 2020 to create real momentum at the precise moment when the psychology of the race shifts from battling Trump to choosing a candidate based on vision and inspiration.

As the fear drops away of whether she is the best to battle Trump, people might become more intrigued both by her fresh viewpoints and the real chance at reforms that her candidacy offers. She may well have the status as the sole non-politician outsider among the major remaining candidates, and at minimum stand as the sole female outsider.

Now, let’s say that by this point the field has decreased to perhaps 12 candidates by the Iowa primaries, and she builds on the coverage and grassroots momentum discussed above to place 4th — a solid, respectable, and surprising result. It’s not hard to imagine, since she has actually moved to Iowa and is already campaigning hard there and consistently electrifying audiences. A fourth place finish would itself would become a real news story, which would add to her momentum. By South Carolina or Nevada, she might do as well as 3rd, and the field will be winnowed further to perhaps 9 candidates for Super Tuesday.

While the above forward momentum would get her taken more seriously, she would still need to win somewhere big for the Democratic party to truly consider nominating her.

And where better than the very place whose job it is to invent the future: California.

With California’s primary moved up to March 3 on Super Tuesday, the Golden State is now a key player in the nomination process. It’s also a very expensive media market, which means fewer second-tier campaigns will be able to compete. In 2016, there were around 5 million votes cast in California for Hilary Clinton or Bernie Sanders, and Bernie won 45% of them. It’s likely that the race at this point will still include Biden, Sanders, and Harris, each of whom will undoubtedly claim a good percentage of the California vote. Sanders has his legacy supporters and infrastructure. Senator Harris has powerful donor networks and party insider support throughout California, as evidenced by her statewide wins. And Biden, for the reasons I’ve articulated above, is fairly likely to still be a frontrunner with the support of the national party’s power structure.

So let’s assume 20% of the total votes go to four other remaining candidates, probably including at least Warren and Buttigieg, who have strong support and donor networks in the state, and perhaps Booker and O’Rourke. Those four are currently averaging 22.5% in national polls.

If Marianne were to focus heavily on the state — a place she has called home for much of her adult life and where she has many powerful, well-known allies to support her campaign — she could build strong grassroots momentum. I think it’s very plausible if the nation begins turning to her as a voice of conscience and she has a strong surge through the fall, California would be the place where she could surprise folks.

With 80% of the remaining votes split fairly evenly between four leading candidates, somewhere in the range of 25% of the total votes could result in an actual win (25, 22, 18 and 15% to the four, say). If we assume 5.5 million votes, that means that 1.375 million votes could be enough to win the state. Let’s say 1.5 million to be safe. In this scenario, then, a relatively slim plurality would be all it would take to claim the huge boost of a win in the biggest delegate contest in the nation. In the trendsetter state. In the place where the future is born. In the very place where visionary outsiders regularly demonstrate that out-of-the-box thinking can, and does, change the world.

Marianne has sold 3 million books and spoken at thousands of events in the state. I would wager that she likely has at least 1 million real fans in California. Her name recognition is higher than anywhere else, and she has the most powerful allies to headline with her events.

If she were to convince 1.5 million California voters to go for a bold, out-of-the-box approach to the future of our country, the entire nation would wake up on March 4 to the shocking, thrilling headline “Marianne Williamson wins California!”

There would immediately be a massive amount of attention on her candidacy. She would suck up the media oxygen in the race in the way that Trump’s 2016 run did for the Republicans. What she would do, though, is the opposite of what Trump did. She would instead offer a politics of love and healing, right at a time when America is suffering deep disillusionment. She could help America remember who we truly are and recommit to our highest ideals.

Marianne’s greatest gift is to uplift an audience. With a big enough megaphone, she could uplift a nation.

By the end of Super Tuesday, only 1565 delegates will be selected, with 2129 still remaining (excluding superdelegates). With a California win, she would likely have 200+ delegates and be one of 2 or 3 candidates with an actual statewide win. In short, at that point, she becomes a real contender, with just enough time to create a national surge.

As we enter the homestretch, which includes many heavily-covered debates, I am confident that Marianne would outshine whomever else remains on the stage. Her ability to offer compelling oratory, memorable sound bites, and a commanding stage presence will be at a premium.

Even if Democratic party regulars rally against her, it’s not hard to envision a powerful groundswell behind her as she articulates a bold vision for America’s future.

If it were to come down to a toe-to-toe in the final stretch with an established but old-school politician like Biden, she would have a strong shot at coming out the victor. And if Trump is crippled and there’s no viable Republican alternative, the selection of the Democratic candidate would effectively be the election of the next American President.

The above scenario offers a plausible, logical pathway for how Marianne could become our next President. It builds from two factors: the unrivaled power of her speaking and the beginning of serious impeachment proceedings against Donald Trump, leaving the Democratic party more likely to turn from business-as-usual politics to an outsider with an electrifying vision.

What are the odds if the above? If the start of impeachment of Trump is around 22% (and he’s showing every indication of increasing that with increasing belligerence) and the other relies mainly on Marianne’s consistently-demonstrated oratory power, perhaps not as long a shot as we think.

Her winning the White House would, of course, be regarded as a miracle by the press. However, the pathway is paved only with breakout moments in the debates that surge her into media buzz and fundraising momentum in a similar fashion as happened with Mayor Pete. If her operations scale up and her grassroots rallies catch fire, she will be poised to create the miracle.

The above scenario demonstrates clearly that her election is not impossible. Instead, there is at least one pathway (and probably many) to take Marianne to the Oval Office.

The real question is whether we believe enough in the transformative power of her as President to invest in making it happen.

Our planetary clock is ticking, and a President Williamson could create truly historic changes and lead to a rebirth of our democracy.

Why not go for it?